The Diesel Dilemma Series – Weather: Diesel’s Achilles Heel

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Headshot-Jim-Kelly

Jim Kelly

Director of Renewable Natural Gas

This five-part series explores the operational characteristics of diesel fuel, which is the most common form of industrial-scale backup generation. With the rapid rise of AI-driven data centers, the series will examine how conventional backup practices need to adapt to meet the industry’s growing demand for resiliency and performance.

This first installment covers the impact of severe weather on the typical 48-hour onsite supply of diesel fuel.

For a power-intensive facility like a 500 MW data center, diesel backup might come with 48 hours of onsite fuel storage. And at first glance, that sounds like a reliable strategy for protecting against power outages. Two days of fuel leaves plenty of buffer, right? But when you consider how long the bigger storms and the grid’s recovery can last, 48 hours of fuel storage could be a gamble you don’t want to make.

When we look at the historical data around extreme weather and the extended outages they can produce, it becomes clear that 48 hours’ worth of fuel storage isn’t enough to ensure reliable backup power. Here are a few of the more recent examples of weather events that caused major disruptions to the grid and supply chains:

  • Hurricane Sandy (Oct. 2012): Fuel shortages and blocked roads plagued the Northeast for more than 7 days after landfall.
  • Hurricane Harvey (Aug. 2017): Flooding in Houston shut down major fuel terminals and regional delivery routes for nearly a week.
  • Midwest Derecho (Aug. 2020): Widespread hurricane-force winds across the Midwest left millions without power, while blocked roads and damaged infrastructure disrupted fuel distribution and resupply for days.
  • Winter Storm Uri (Feb. 2021): Parts of Texas saw rotating outages for 4 to 5 days straight due to grid shortages. Roads were frozen, refineries were offline, and diesel deliveries were delayed well beyond 48 hours. Conditions also led to the complete closure of refineries in New Mexico, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Tennessee, reducing the supply of refined fuels like diesel.
  • Hurricane Beryl (July 2024): Heavy rains disrupted diesel supplies in Texas, with port closures, impassable roads, and widespread power outages resulting in delivery backlogs.

Once onsite diesel storage begins to run low, the process of refueling requires coordinating hundreds of deliveries. In each of the storms listed above, facilities with 48-hour diesel reserves would have needed to start resupply far ahead of running out of fuel, which would mean they were doing so while the event was still active and access was compromised. Imagine the safety and logistical issues associated with those operations during a severe weather event that’s already had the following impact:

  • Roads are flooded, iced over, or blocked by vehicles and debris
  • Regional fuel terminals are shut down or disrupted
  • Driver availability is stretched as workloads increase
  • First responder vehicles, hospitals, and utilities are competing for the same limited supply

It’s not just the “100-Year Storm” anymore

Storms like Uri, Harvey, and Sandy may sound like rare, once-in-a-lifetime occurrences, but climate trends suggest otherwise. And the alarm bells aren’t ringing solely for hurricanes and high-profile weather events. The unnamed ones can also have a lasting impact on supply chains.

In the fall of 2022, for example, drought on the Mississippi River dropped water levels so low that barge traffic was cut off, choking a key fuel artery to the central U.S. and forcing suppliers to put more trucks on the road.

High winds also create another layer of disruption for diesel fuel supplies. During a 2020 windstorm in Utah, gusts near 100 mph overturned 45 semis in just 20 minutes, underscoring the danger truckers face and the delays and costs that follow.

What used to be framed as “100-year” events are occurring more frequently and with greater severity. For operators betting on diesel, that means the risk window isn’t improving at all; it’s worsening.

Avoid the diesel-fuel gamble during extreme weather

Backup power is supposed to remove uncertainty, but diesel-powered generation is anything but reliable during severe weather. The ideal alternative is backup power fueled by natural gas delivered via the existing underground pipeline network.

When severe storms cut off roads or flood facilities, underground natural gas pipelines are undisturbed and keep the fuel flowing to generators and the power on. Unlike diesel, which depends on convoys of trucks that may never arrive, natural gas is delivered continuously through resilient infrastructure that isn’t blocked by flooding, ice, or debris. Line pack, the volume of natural gas stored within the system, also provides extra flexibility during peak demand, making pipeline gas a far more reliable safety net during the very events that take diesel offline.

So, if you’re betting on diesel for a 500 MW site, you’re betting you’ll never need fuel during prolonged, weather-driven outages. History, and the forecast, say otherwise.

Next up: The “truck-math” problem and why fueling a 500 MW data center during an outage isn’t just hard; it’s nearly impossible.

This article was originally published on LinkedIn.

 

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